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外部因素影响或打破箱体震荡格局
2018-07-21 09:08 中国证券网
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  券商策略周报:国元证券

  市场依然处于存量资金博弈格局。今年以来投资者数量没有明显增长,各板块成交量也没有明显攀升,增量资金入场迹象并不明显,A股市场依然处于存量资金博弈阶段。短期来看,由于不确定因素犹动,市场风险偏好下行,避险情绪上升,全球股市上周均大幅震荡。

  全球市场短期面临休整。我们认为,自2016年初以来形成的商品回暖、经济复苏和股市趋势性上涨局面短期面临休整,主要原因如下:1)商品市场供需两端再平衡局面已经基本实现;2)供给侧结构性改革对商品市场的利好作用已充分体现;3)作为衡量经济发展效率和潜在增长动力的核心指标——劳动生产率目前预期平稳;4)全球利率拐点或已经出现。在多重因素影响下,全球股市今年以来震荡幅度明显加大。我们认为,告别低利率环境这一事实终将在股市上有所反映,目前尚未看到企稳信号的出现,A股市场也将受到影响。

  企业盈利水平改善呈分化态势,资金价格难以下行。结合近期A股公司的业绩披露情况来看,去年上市公司盈利增速较高的企业主要集中在上游资源品行业,具有典型的局部特征。此外,PPI指标自去年10月后高位回落,大宗商品价格也在年后逐渐回归稳定。因此,今年这些行业的盈利状况可能难以继续高企。同时在防风险、去杠杆的宏观背景下,资金价格中枢依然会维持高位,A股市场的估值提升空间将因此承压。今年货币政策仍将维持稳健中性,而央行在美联储加息后随行就市,上调公开市场操作利率5BP,表明在当前通胀预期抬升的全球资本市场上,货币政策的协同性较高。在这样的政策背景下,国内资金价格中枢难以快速下行,对A股市场的估值提升空间将有所制约。

  外部因素影响或将打破箱体震荡格局。自去年11月进入战略调仓期以来,权重板块的调整过程尚未结束。同时由于不确定因素犹存,现阶段市场预期有所降低,今年市场维持箱体运行格局概率较大,但不排除后市在外部因素影响下震荡箱体被打破可能,投资者应当顺势而为。

  建议从四个角度选择标的。1)受外部因素影响较小乃至受益行业,如农业、医药、传媒、环保等;2)“一带一路”主题和国企改革主题;3)从避险角度关注贵金属以及高股息蓝筹股;4)战略地位提升的工业互联网、信息安全领域等。

新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。

责任编辑:马秋菊 SF186

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